Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.630510 21.346952 23.243012 25.512596 28.182465 31.258670 35.124567
2024-10-20 16.815231 19.015440 21.620864 25.000898 29.378009 35.024877 43.181726
2024-10-27 15.563811 18.180202 21.467500 26.053924 32.573349 42.052256 58.203875
2024-11-03 14.181434 16.934250 20.538243 25.840319 33.940986 46.962290 72.898772
2024-11-10 13.206649 16.062142 19.933241 25.900286 35.646525 52.957617 94.039618
2024-11-17 12.460964 15.394126 19.492419 26.079020 37.532326 60.027204 125.371288
2024-11-24 11.830015 14.808589 19.079053 26.199022 39.312186 67.749722 172.035946
2024-12-01 11.202979 14.165136 18.497202 25.932052 40.284749 74.227257 232.779268
2024-12-08 10.726350 13.695594 18.123529 25.946966 41.805959 83.088690 351.239409
2024-12-15 10.254226 13.194185 17.647088 25.702533 42.714716 90.969104 550.367738
2024-12-22 9.831708 12.736411 17.196692 25.438284 43.514565 99.291102 993.277833
2024-12-29 9.462487 12.334832 16.801956 25.222662 44.380214 108.837808 2615.342531
2025-01-05 9.129326 11.974262 16.455237 25.074242 45.441951 120.865301 725937.339843
2025-01-12 8.750500 11.522600 15.924440 24.502638 45.290367 127.629411 NaN
2025-01-19 8.661204 11.518333 16.149415 25.483412 49.668844 166.299748 NaN
2025-01-26 8.388200 11.206184 15.817595 25.261001 50.545156 186.318350 NaN
2025-02-02 8.177016 10.982149 15.624088 25.311046 52.302442 219.563688 NaN
2025-02-09 7.997966 10.800566 15.492325 25.479391 54.534907 268.798266 NaN
2025-02-16 7.823567 10.617581 15.344632 25.593114 56.661726 333.480966 NaN
2025-02-23 7.611944 10.363497 15.050693 25.335683 57.388735 387.041871 NaN
2025-03-02 7.448325 10.182130 14.880014 25.349677 59.191080 491.111515 NaN
2025-03-09 7.263923 9.958373 14.617149 25.114467 59.954720 592.822245 NaN
2025-03-16 7.087913 9.742125 14.356950 24.860224 60.588659 723.323509 NaN